by NHK via Andrei Pinkov

Through the Wenhui Paper of Hong Kong, China has issued a public threat that if Taiwan develops the TMD system, China will adjust its military arrangements. China has also hinted that it will carry out another military maneouver similar to the one of 1996.

As the Chinese expert of strategic security affairs indicated to the KWIC reporter, China is trying to show the level of its deterrence in the military struggle against Taiwan for this new period of time through the demonstration of its adequate determination so as to prevent any possible hidden danger or threat. China seems to believe that if it does nothing in response to the TMD issue, then it is possible that the plan for the cooperation between Taiwan and the USA on the TMD will become a reality.

However, the Chinese expert of strategic security affairs believe that the US inclusion of Taiwan under the TMD umbrella is equivalent to the increase in the US military interference in Taiwan affairs, thus placing Taiwan right within the sphere of the US military influence and providing those that advocate the independence of Taiwan with a permanent military asylum. According to the Chinese experts, this movement is of great political significance and China should make a response. The reason is that China believes that there exists a highly probable tendency of Taiwan’s acceptance of the TMD system and once it becomes a reality, it will cause China more corresponding investment and will make the peaceful solution to the issue of Taiwan more difficult to achieve. Besides, Taiwan’s acceptance of the TMD system will encourage the arms dealers from the other countries to once again enter the arms market of Taiwan and in the meantime, will form a military challenge to the advantage China owns through its possession of missiles. However, once this challenge comes to be of real decisive significance, China will take a military action.

The TMD plan has sparked a heated dispute inside the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. The Japanese commentator on the Chinese military affairs, Professor Hiramatsu Sigeo, indicated to the KWIC reporter that the primary reason for Japan to develop the TMD system is the missile threat from North Korea Though the Japanese Defence Ministry has repeatedly told China that the TMD is an agreement on the bilateral defence cooperation, yet Taiwan’s involvement in the relevant research will make it a multilateral development cooperation in reality. The current situation is in this direction. Japan can not sidestep it. On this issue, Japan should express its position more frankly to China. In public, Japan’s pretexts such as dealing with the missile threat from North Korea and the agreement on the bilateral cooperation will not change substantially.

As Professor Ronald Morse of the University of Maryland, who maintains a close contact with the Pentagon, stressed to the KWIC reporter earlier, the USA will first implement its TMD plan in eastern Asia. Once Taiwan gets involved, Japan will have no choice at all. Meanwhile, Taiwan may get involved in different ways and the USA may also provide different forms of protection. If necessary, the US navy may even provide the direct TMD support to Taiwan.

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