The "Conmilit" of the August issue sponsored by China's Information Center of National Defence Science and Technology makes an overall evaluation of the current arms situations of India and Vietnam. The main points include:

It is believed that India will further develop its missile-carrying nuclear submarines and SLBMs while stressing the on-going development of its land-based nuclear attack capability. It is estimated that by early next century, India will have preliminarily established its nuclear attack capability with bombers, land-based ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched missiles as the major elements. The Indian air force will

1. continue to develop the LCAs. It is initially planned to produce 100 such planes to replace the MiG-21. It is expected that these LCAs will be deployed for combat use from the year 2002 to the year 2010;

2. develop the MCAs that has a stealth function. They will be put to use from the year 2008 to the year 2010 in place of Jaguar SI and Mirage 2000 fighter planes;

3. develop the new cruise missile on the basis of the PTA unmanned planes. Utilizing inertia and the technology of GPS guiding, this cruise missile has its head weighing about 450 kilograms and can be launched as far as 600 gl kilometers. It is predicted that its development will be completed in the year 2000 or so;

4. successfully develop the new multi-functional high-class LHC. At present, the LHCs are being produced in batches. They will be used as the major equipment for the India's helicopter troops in the future;

5. plan to purchase some more new Mirage 2000 5 fighter planes to equip a squadron. Under the contract on the purchase of 40 SU30MKI multi-functional fighter planes from Russia, the first eight planes were handed over to the Indian air force in March of 1997 and the rest will have been delivered to India in three batches by the year 2000;

6. purchase the licence for the production of the Russian Su30-MKI fighter planes. The contract involves one billion US dollars. It is planned that about 100 Su30MKI will have been produced by the year 2010;

7. improve the strategic and tactical air transport capabilities. It is believed that the Indian air force is planning to increase its number of airfreighters from current 192 to 300 by the end of this century. In addition, India is considering purchasing more Russia-made Il76 heavy-duty airfreighters;

8. plan to purchase from Russia an Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier with the contract value of one billion US dollars;

9. build on its own a light-duty aircraft carrier with a displacement of 17,000 tons. Consuming a manufacturing cost of 330 million US dollars and having a loading capacity of 12 to 15 fighter planes, this aircraft carrier will be launched in the year 2002 as planned;

10. continue to build the large Delhi class destroyer with a displacement of 6000 tons and to import the Kilo submarines, the Tu142 marine reconnaissance planes, and Il-38 anti-submarine planes.

As for Vietnam, the "Conmilit" indicates that as Vietnam has made some progress in its economic reform ever since the 1990s, it may want to modernize its air force on a large scale in the next 15 years by upgrading or replacing its existing equipment. The basic evaluation of Vietnam is as follows:

1. Around the year 2010, Vietnam may obtain a number of advanced fighter planes, including the MiG21 93, MiG29M, and Su 27SK, to replace its current MiG21 and MiG23;

2. Around the year 2000, Vietnam will equip its air force with 26 Su27 fighter planes, as compared to 10 it currently has;

3. From the year 2001 to the year 2010, it is possible that Vietnam will purchase about 60 MiG29M to replace its existing MiG23MF and will, at the same time, upgrade its MiG-21 Bis with the technology of the MiG 21 93;

4. Around the year 2010, the Vietnamese air force will have 250 MiG21 93, 60 MiG 29M , and 30 Su27SMK. In the meantime, the AWACS will also be developed as another important measure of improving Vietnam's air defence capability;

5. The Vietnamese air force will purchase a number of AWACS and may mainly choose the Russian An77 (the original says An77, but in fact, it should read An71, i.e. the naval AWACS which was upgraded on the basis of the An72 and whose research has almost ended now). As Vietnam intends to form an effective air defence network, at least 10 AWACS will be needed. Due to the shortage of funds, it is estimated that Vietnam will use the Ka-31 helicopter-shaped AWACS as a transitional supplement. Vietnam claims that by the year 2010, its AWACS will include four An71s and six Ka31s;

6. The Vietnamese air force may choose the Su39 (i.e.Su25TM) and the MiG27MD as the successors to the Su22 ;

7. It is possible that 150 to 200 MiG27MDs or the Su 39s will be purchased in the next 15 years to totally replace the Su 22s. Before the arrival of the Su 39 or the MiG27MD, Vietnam may need to make some necessary upgrading to its Su 22 now in service in order to meet the transitional needs;

8. Work will be initiated in the next 15 years to modernize the Vietnamese air force by replacing its existing airfreighters. A total of 140 planes will be needed, including the An32s, An74s, Mi26s, and Mi38s;

9. The Mi24 armed helicopters now in service will be upgraded. Then 60 to 100 Mi28H armed helicopters with an all-weather fighting capability will be purchased from Russia. It is said that the first 20 or so Mi28H helicopters will be delivered to India before the year 2002. Finally, it is estimated that the modernization of the Vietnamese air force will cost around 7.5 billion US dollars. There will be some difficulty in fund raising.( Satoko Tomiyama )

---