Kanwa news 16 September Toronto: Various sources indicate that the Chinese army is actively preparing for the unprecedentedly grand military review to be held on October 1, 1999. It is predicted that the new T85 3 tanks and the WS-1 long-range rocket guns of the ground force and the Su27, H7 bombers, the newly imported AEW, and the new strategic ballistic missiles of the Second Artillery Force will all be shown at this military review. As far as the military significance is concerned, this means that the Chinese army has put the "deterrent" effect as the top priority in its preparations for the military struggle of the new period.

The Chinese army has decided that in the future, the prevention of the independence of Taiwan should be approached from the strategic high plane of the most importance. For the Chinese army, the main manifestation of "prevention" in the military struggle is "deterrence". Recently, discussions have been held inside the military with a focus on the new concept, development, and manifestations of the "deterrence" theory.

First of all, the Chinese army defined the "deterrence" theory as the "nuclear deterrence" and conventional deterrence". In the area of the nuclear deterrence, the Chinese army believes that the nuclear capability is the nucleus of the modern deterrent power, stressing the "firm nuclear retaliation" as the major means of containing the nuclear war. That is to let the opponent know that upon receiving the nuclear attack, China will take the measures of the "firm nuclear retaliation". This will make the opponent not dare to launch any nuclear attack without careful consideration.

The second change in the "nuclear deterrence" theory is the combination of the "nuclear deterrence" itself with the theory of "active defence". It is to extend the concept of the active defence into the area of the "nuclear counterattack". On this premise, the "nuclear deterrence" (active defence) theory after the 1990s lays more emphasis on maintaining a limited (of defence nature) but effective (active) defence capability. It is believed that the active aspect of defence should be maintained. This requires the nuclear capability of China to be strong enough to create deterrence on the enemy countries. Ever since the 1980s, the Chinese army has emphasized the maintenance of the "minimum second nuclear counterattack" capability. However, it has been recently admitted inside the military that compared with the large countries in terms of the quantity, quality, or general level, China still has a long way to go. "There is still quite a distance for the Chinese nuclear deterrence to reach the minimum level for the use of nuclear retaliation where the superpowers don't dare to resort to the nuclear weapons against us." Therefore, after being introduced to the area of nuclear weapons, the "active defence" concept has become the theoretical basis for the development and upgarding of nuclear weapons.

Why does China feel such a crisis? This is mainly because China has realized that the US BMD technical development will require the attack and defence capabilities of the Chinese ground-to-ground missiles to reach a higher level.

Recently, the Chinese army has also proposed the concept of "scientific deterrence". It is believed that the scientific deterrence should consist of the three basic elements: strength, determination, and information. While stressing the continuation of perfecting its nuclear capability, China has focused its attention on the establishment of the conventional capability. In addition, China has determined the order of development priority, i.e. priority should be given to the development of the navy and air force with a concentration on the development and reinforcement of the strategic missile troops, the special troops, and the rapid reaction troops. The focus of the moderate development of the space capability is to develop as soon as possible the space technology of the manned space travel and close space pursuits so as to prevent the potential enemy from blackmailing China by means of the space.

The Chinese army stresses that its ever increasing conventional deterrent is used not only for deterrence, but also for the actual combat. Under the current circumstances of a low confidence in the nuclear deterrent which has not yet become a reality, there is not much pressure from the public opinion on the implementation of the conventional deterrent and the cost that may be incurred in the actual combat is relatively low. Therefore, it is believed that the confidence in the conventional deterrent is higher.

The Chinese army has realized the necessity of combining strength and determination. A "momentum" should be built up from the perspective of deterrence. The methods that will play a deterrent role include maintaining the necessary military forces and an appropriate level of combat readiness in peacetime to create the "stationery deterrence", holding large military reviews, maneuvers, performances, and weapon shows, reporting on the test results of new weapons, dispatching naval vessels on oceangoing voyages, and inviting the Chinese and foreign journalists to visit the military troops.

Obviously, the whole series of the public military activities that the Chinese army has undertaken in recent years demonstrate their strategic concept of military deterrence. ( Edited by Satoko Tomiyama) .

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